A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
